In a volatile world

KIRAN KARNIK

VUCA¹, an acronym from times past, may have been considered — like other such fashionable and ephemeral buzzwords — to have long exceeded its half-life and set to cede space to some other smart formulation of alphabets. Yet, the reality is that we live in a world that is today more volatile than ever, with greater uncertainty and complexity. Ambiguity defines the times; for instance, with little difference or time between friends becoming enemies. Overnight, today’s ally may become tomorrow’s bugbear.

What better example of this than the Indo-US relationship which, in the space of a few months in 2025, moved from the warmth of friendship and strategic allies to a frosty, trust-less distancing. The US has now become India’s tormentor, an unfaithful partner who is now practically in bed with Pakistan. To add insult to injury, it has weaponized trade, with Indian exports facing the highest tariffs (and other sanctions and restrictions, not faced even by US enemies). The only solace is that India is not alone; even long-standing allies in Europe are feeling abandoned.

In his new term, President Donald Trump has already unveiled his new, super-aggressive persona, marked as much by unpredictability as an uncaring transgression of all boundaries (metaphorically and also literally). This has reached new heights with his latest action in Venezuela, following bombing of Syria, Yemen, Iran and Nigeria. Earlier, standing four-square behind Israel in its genocide and demolishment in Gaza, he supported its bombing of practically every country in its neighbourhood, extending all the way to Iran and Qatar. His disdain for a rules-based international order (long promoted by his own country, with “rules” being what it had created) has been evidenced by the way he has dealt with trade, tariffs, the World Trade Organization: raised to new heights with, first, the firing on Venezuelan ships in international waters and, worse, killing the survivors floating in the sea; now, in bombing that country and kidnapping its president and his wife.

The mercurial US president, in his megalomaniac desire to be recognized as GOAT (greatest of all time) and expecting allies to be courtiers, seeks to create an American Empire. It would not be a surprise if he soon announces the annexation of Greenland (“essential for American security”) and mounts greater pressure on Canada to be the 51st state of the US. Equally possible are threats, followed by Venezuela-style action, to Cuba and Colombia. Brazil may be next on the list: it is too autonomous, has a socialist leader in charge, and often aligns with Russia and China.

What might all this portend for India? Looking ahead, we should be prepared for jolts and even extreme contingencies (500 percent tariffs have been threatened), especially if we don’t bend to US/Trump wishes. India did maintain a loud silence on the Gaza genocide, abandoned the Global South on Palestine, took a wishy-washy stance on both the US-Israeli bombing of Iran and the recent events in Venezuela, and did not join in BRICS condemnation of US action in Venezuela. Despite this kow-towing to US sensitivities, Trump may yet be dissatisfied with our firm stand on some import tariffs, our strategic autonomy, and not giving him credit for ending the Indo-Pakistan conflict in May 2025. One sign of this is the punitive tariff on our exports to the US because we import Russian oil (though we abandoned Venezuelan oil, as also the economically advantageous Iranian oil). While Hungary was given a free pass on Russian oil, “close friend” India — and not “enemy” China — was singled out for the highest tariff.

If a trade deal is not signed on US terms, we need to brace for further tariffs, other restrictions, and even sanctions against Indian companies. Some kind of squeeze on Indian IT (our biggest export to the US) and restrictions on US companies operating in India may also follow. Who knows, beyond tariffs and sanctions, we may well be put on Trump’s “bomb list”. For those who consider this outlandish, imagine (based on recent instances) his check list for such action. Long-range missiles and growing nuclear weapons capability (Iran); anti-Christian mobs (Nigeria); independent foreign policy, good relations with Russia and/or China (Iran and Venezuela); strong natural resource base, especially oil (Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela); a leader who projects himself as a champion of the poor or as a socialist (Venezuela). Though India lacks great oil reserves, we do have massive energy resources (coal and thorium, in particular) and other valuable minerals (iron ore). We, therefore, tick all the boxes and would qualify for the bomb list. Not so far-fetched, after all!

Another upheaval we should expect is a growth in aggression and war between countries. Russia, and then Israel and the US, have opened what may be the floodgates for open threats, gunboat diplomacy, territorial acquisition, and indiscriminate bombing. In the new era, kidnappings (a la Maduro) and murders on foreign soil (Israel’s forte) will grow. Might this open the way for a new wave of cross-border terrorism through abductions and “collateral damage”? One wonders about world reaction (especially India’s) if some country or group were to kidnap Netanyahu and produce him before the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant against him for war crimes.

Meanwhile, embassies may no longer be required, as the US president has set the style of diplomacy being conducted and foreign policy being announced through social media or via press briefings, interviews, and decrees. Phone calls add to this style of direct diplomacy, leaving little scope (or jobs) for diplomats.

We seem back to 19th century colonialism: bombs, war, conquest, puppet regimes, spheres of control, and empires. The West was a past master at this, though the US itself generally preferred money power: acquiring vast territories through purchase. Other European colonizers have lost their military power as also whatever moral veneer they recently added, by being mute spectators to Israel’s doings; worsened now by avoiding any condemnation of US actions.

In this turmoil, the biggest beneficiary is China: much of it the result of US consigning India to the doghouse, the rest by our self-goals. Clearly, we need to be wary and prepare for further storms ahead. 

¹ VUCA: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity  

Kiran Karnik is a public policy analyst, author, and columnist. His most recent book is ‘Decisive Decade: India 2030, Gazelle or Hippo’.